Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
22/0340Z from Region 2434 (S10W48). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct,
25 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
509 km/s at 21/2240Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/1755Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/1413Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 806 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (24 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (25
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Oct 121
Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        22 Oct 103

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  012/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  006/005-009/012-019/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/40
Minor Storm           01/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/45/50

Radio Events Observed 22 Oct 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0230   0232    290          0231        0002  
0811   0812    120          0812        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.