Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/1137Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
472 km/s at 03/1143Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 03/1915Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 03/1813Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 578 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 Sep,
05 Sep, 06 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 087
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep 085/090/090
90 Day Mean        03 Sep 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  010/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  008/008-008/010-008/009

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/30

Radio Events Observed 03 Sep 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0310   0310    130          0310        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.