Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
31/0522Z from Region 2403 (S15W99). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 444 km/s at
30/2112Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/2323Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/2208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2912 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (02 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (03 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Aug 091
Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep 085/080/080
90 Day Mean        31 Aug 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  014/020-017/022-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/45/30
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    65/70/50