Report of Solar Geophysical Activity
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 502 km/s at 23/2108Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2132Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/0331Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 615 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Sep, 26 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Sep). III. Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Sep 107 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 104 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 013/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 013/015-013/015-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/10 Minor Storm 10/10/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 40/40/20 Radio Events Observed 24 Sep 2015 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0824 0824 140 0824 0000 1408 1408 120 1408 0000 1416 1416 850 1416 0000 1851 1851 1100 1851 0000 2119 2119 980 2119 0000 2257 2258 150 2258 0001 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed. www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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