In the new edition of "Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050," the IAEA projects that global nuclear power capacity will expand by 2.4% from 376 GW in 2014 to 385 GW by 2030 assuming low growth. In a high-growth scenario, the IAEA projects nuclear power capacity to increase by a whopping 68% to reach a total capacity of 632 GW by 2030.

The wide range reflects the underlying uncertainty over the future direction of energy policy and license renewals of nuclear reactors scheduled to be shuttered over the next two decades, according to the IAEA. In any event, the most recent high and low growth projections are both down from the projections released in 2014, which projected increases of between 8% and 88%.

"Our low-case projections show that for every unit of capacity retiring, another unit will be built somewhere in the world by 2030; and in the high case, about 1.7 times the capacity will be constructed," said David Shropshire, head of the IAEA's planning and economic studies section.

The expansion of nuclear power in Asia, especially in China and South Korea, account for most of the projected growth in the IAEA's projections. Growth is also projected in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. North American capacity is forecast to decrease in the low growth scenario. By contrast, in the IAEA's high growth scenario, North American capacity is projected to increase. Western Europe is the only region where nuclear capacity is projected to decrease by 2030 under both low and high scenarios. The IAEA attributes the decline in Western Europe to post-Fukushima developments in Germany.

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http://www.fierceenergy.com/story/setbacks-aside-growth-nuclear-power-will-continue/2015-09-09