Ocean temps predict heat waves 50 days outScientists identified what they call the Pacific Extreme Pattern warm seawater next to cool seawater and showed its connection to heat waves weeks later. On March 28, 2016, scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) released word of a study showing its possible to predict an increased chance of summertime heat waves 50 days in advance. The work focused on the formation of an ocean pattern warmer-than-average water butting up against cooler-than-average water in the middle of the North Pacific Ocean. These scientists called it the Pacific Extreme Pattern and said that, when it appears, the odds that extreme heat will strike during a particular week or even on a particular day can more than triple. Karen McKinnon, who led the study, commented:
For their study, the scientists focused on a swath of the United States, stretching across much of the Midwest and up the East Coast, encompassing both agricultural areas and populated cities. They looked to see if there was a relationship between global sea surface temperature anomalies waters that are warmer or cooler than average and extreme heat in the eastern half of the U.S. Their statement said:
They then used data collected from 1,613 weather stations across the eastern U.S. between 1982 and 2015, as well as daily sea surface temperatures for the same time period, and hindcasted each year in the dataset to see if they could retrospectively predict extreme heat events or lack of those events during that years summer. At 50 days out, the scientists were able to predict an increase in the odds from about 1 in 6 to about 1 in 4 that a heat wave would strike somewhere in the eastern U.S. during a given week. At 30 days out or closer, the scientists were able to predict an increase in the odds to better than 1 in 2 for a particularly well-formed pattern that a heat wave would strike on a particular day. They say this new technique could improve existing seasonal forecasts. And they say the studys findings point toward the possibility that the Pacific Extreme Pattern, or a different oceanic fingerprint, could be used to forecast other weather events far in advance, including cooler-than-average days and extreme rainfall events. The research is being published in the journal Nature Geoscience. Bottom line: Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) said on March 28, 2016, that its possible to use an ocean pattern warmer-than-average water butting up against cooler-than-average water in the North Pacific Ocean to predict an increased chance of summertime heat waves in the U.S. 50 days in advance. They call it the Pacific Extreme Pattern. © 2014 Earthsky Communications Inc http://earthsky.org/earth/ocean-temps-predict-heat-waves-50-days-out |