Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 30/2225Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 30/2307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/2217Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 448 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Apr), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (02 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (03 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Mar 082
Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr 082/081/081
90 Day Mean        31 Mar 099

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  008/010-020/026-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor Storm           15/30/20
Major-severe storm    05/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    45/65/55