Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/1113Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr, 10 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 411 km/s at 07/0909Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at
07/1800Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
07/1800Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1937 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (09 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (10
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Apr 092
Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr 092/090/095
90 Day Mean        07 Apr 098

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  013/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           20/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    55/25/10