Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/2027Z from Region 2529 (N09E28). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Apr,
13 Apr, 14 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 10/2101Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 11/1608Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
11/1426Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Apr) and unsettled to
minor storm levels on days two and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Apr 117
Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        11 Apr 098

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  012/015-018/030-018/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           10/30/30
Major-severe storm    01/20/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    45/75/75

Radio Events Observed 11 Apr 2016
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0044   0045    1000         0044        0001  
0051   0051    590          0051        0000  
0128   0128    290          0128        0000  
0145   0145    440          0145        0000  
0150   0152    780          0151        0002  
0412   0412    260          0412        0000  
0504   0504    520          0504        0000  
0707   0710    420          0707        0003  
1036   1036    110          1036        0000  
1044   1044    1000         1044        0000  
1052   1052    100          1052        0000  
1105   1105    1600         1105        0000  
1623   1623    210          1623        0000  
1721   1721    120          1721        0000  
1734   1737    270          1735        0003  
1830   1831    610          1831        0001  
1900   1900    740          1900        0000  
1902   1902    850          1902        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
1743   2101    580          1900