Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
13/2343Z from Region 2529 (N09E00). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Apr,
16 Apr, 17 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 13/2145Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 14/0829Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 14/0905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 5141 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Apr 111
Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        14 Apr 098

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  016/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr  016/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  010/012-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/25/25

adio Events Observed 14 Apr 2016
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0035   0036    110          0036        0001  
0128   0129    120          0128        0001  
0255   0255    110          0255        0000  
0425   0425    200          0425        0000  
0430   0430    110          0430        0000  
0437   0437    390          0437        0000  
0610   0610    690          0610        0000  
0626   0626    240          0626        0000  
0719   0719    490          0719        0000  
0827   0831    250          0829        0004  
0833   0833    110          0833        0000  
1117   1120    180          1117        0003  
1324   1327    270          1327        0003  
1344   1345    440          1344        0001  
1421   1421    110          1421        0000  
1452   1453    140          1453        0001  
1456   1456    160          1456        0000  
1532   1532    150          1532        0000  
1610   1610    140          1610        0000  
1740   1740    100          1740        0000  
1940   1941    230          1940        0001  
2023   2023    110          2023        0000  
2124   2125    110          2124        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0431   0442    110          0438              

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2345
Issue Time: 2016 Apr 13 1501 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2016 Apr 13 1445 UTC
Station: GOES-13


Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.