FILE - In this Dec. 24, 2015 file
photo, a cyclist wearing shorts,
sneakers and no socks, rides a
rental bike through a downtown
Manhattan street on Christmas Eve,
in New York, as warm temperatures,
rising into the 70's in New York.
Global warming has made the average
daily weather for Americans more
pleasant over the last 40 years,
which may explain why much of the
public doesn’t rank climate change
as big a threat as scientists and
the rest of the world do, a new
study suggests. (AP Photo/Kathy
Willens, File)
WASHINGTON (AP) — Global warming has
mostly made the weather more
pleasant for Americans over the last
40 years, which may explain why much
of the public doesn't rank climate
change as big a threat as do
scientists and the rest of the
world, a new study suggests.
But that perceived benefit of global
warming — mostly milder winters —
will soon be outweighed by more
oppressive summer heat, according to
a study in the journal Nature that's
dividing the scientific community.
"Americans are getting the wrong
signal from year-round weather about
whether they should be concerned
about climate change," said study
lead author Patrick Egan, a public
policy professor at New York
University. "They're getting the
good parts and haven't had to pay
the price of the bad part."
At least, not yet.
If heat-trapping gases aren't
controlled, nearly nine out of 10
Americans will have noticeably worse
weather — not better — by the end of
the century, especially in the
summer, the study found.
To try to understand America's
reluctance to tackle climate change,
Egan and Megan Mullin, an
environmental policy professor at
Duke University, created a weather
preference index for Americans based
on past studies that look at where
people move, taking employment and
other factors into account. It is
essentially calculated on where
people choose to live.
And all things being equal, the
average American prefers the weather
to be warmer in the winter and less
hot and humid in the summer. In
other words, Miami, San Diego and
Phoenix, which topped the chart of
the new index. At the bottom are
Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Detroit.
Over the past 40 years, America's
weather has trended closer toward
Miami than Pittsburgh.
"For the average American, the daily
weather has gotten better," Mullin
said. They like going coatless in
December, as many did this past
year.
For 99 percent of Americans, winters
have warmed by 1 degree Fahrenheit a
decade in the winter and only a
seventh of a degree a decade in the
summer, the study found.
America "may have been lulled into
complacency when it comes to the
impacts of climate change," said
Penn State climate scientist Michael
Mann, who wasn't part of the study
but called it a solid analysis. He
and other scientists said the study
raises interesting points, but
climate change has other major
impacts on people. It can trigger
droughts, floods and heavy
rainfalls; increase sea levels; make
food and water scarce; and spread
insect-borne diseases.
Other scientists dismissed the
study. Matthew Nisbet, who studies
climate communications at
Northeastern University, said it was
seriously flawed. He said looking at
where people live is a not a good
indicator of the weather people
prefer.
Nisbet and University of Oklahoma
meteorology professor Renee
McPherson said politics, more than
weather, colors people's perception
of climate change, according to
studies and surveys.
Critics also noted that the study
doesn't deal with extreme weather
like this week's downpours in
Houston, California's four-year
drought or Superstorm Sandy. George
Mason University professor Ed
Maibach said surveys show that
nearly 40 percent of Americans say
extreme weather hit their community
in the past year.
"People moved from New Orleans
because of Katrina, not because they
thought Houston, Dallas or Oklahoma
City had better evening
temperatures," McPherson said.
Mullin and Egan said their study
could not incorporate the effect of
extreme weather on people's
preferences, adding that a key
message is that scientists should
talk more about extreme weather than
average temperatures.
According to Kevin Trenberth,
climate analysis chief at the
National Center for Atmospheric
Research, hot summers are more of a
problem than the study suggests. The
fires, droughts and heat waves of a
record hot 2012 cost $75 billion. In
an email, he added: "It is
unconscionable to say the climate
has improved when the only reason is
because one can use air
conditioning."
___
Online:
Nature: http://www.nature.com/nature
___
Follow Seth Borenstein at
http://twitter.com/borenbears and
his work can be found at
http://bigstory.ap.org/content/seth-borenstein