Oil futures rallied Thursday after the International Energy
Agency reported global crude demand was outpacing supply and Saudi
Arabia's energy minister said his country was prepared to help the
market rebalance.
NYMEX September crude settled $1.78 higher at $43.49/b. ICE October
Brent settled up $1.99 at $46.04/b.
NYMEX September ULSD settled 6.65 cents higher at $1.3849/gal. NYMEX
September RBOB settled up 6.03 cents at $1.3617/gal.
Crude oil inventories should see a "hefty draw" this quarter after a
"lengthy stretch of uninterrupted builds," the IEA said Thursday in
its latest monthly report.
While the IEA's forecast of a tighter crude market helped lift
oil futures Thursday, the Paris-based organization cautioned prices
will likely face resistance from the large accumulation of crude in
storage.
"The massive overhang of stocks is also keeping a lid on prices,
with both newly produced and stored crude competing for market share
in an increasingly volatile refinery margin environment," the IEA
said.
Moreover, the IEA's revisions to its 2017 outlook for supply and
demand compared with last month's report were "clearly bearish,"
Citi Futures and OTC Clearing analyst Tim Evans said.
In an interview distributed Thursday, Khalid al-Falih, Saudi
Arabia's energy minister, said that the global market was
rebalancing, but added that current low oil prices were
"unsustainable."
OPEC ministers will consider "any possible action that may be
required to stabilize the market" when the group meets informally
next month, Falih said, according to remarks carried by the Saudi
Press Agency.
That meeting is scheduled to take place on the sidelines of the
International Energy Forum in Algeria on September 26-28.
Falih's comments helped move oil prices higher, though analysts
remained skeptical the Algeria meeting will produce results coming
one day after OPEC's monthly report showed Saudi Arabia pumped a
record 10.67 million b/d in July.
Oil futures found additional support Thursday afternoon when news
broke about a large fire at the 235,000 b/d Motiva-operated refinery
in Convent, Louisiana.
Product futures touched intraday highs in the wake of the refinery
fire, which led to the evacuation of all employees and contractors.
NYMEX September ULSD rose 5.7% to $1.3934/gal at one point and NYMEX
September RBOB surged 5% to $1.3668/gal.
The issues seemingly behind Thursday's rally "stretched the
imagination" whether they were indeed bullish, according to Robert
Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA.
The day could best be described as a "short-covering rally" when
traders betting on further price declines rushed to exit their
positions, causing prices to keep rising, he said.
Escalating tension between Ukraine and Russia was also supportive,
he said.
Ukrainian troops were on high alert Thursday after Russia accused
Kiev on Wednesday of launching an attack in the Crimea, CNN
reported.
CRUDE OPTIONS
Following Thursday's rally, oil futures climbed further above the
recent multi-month lows set August 2 when NYMEX crude settled at
$39.51/b and ICE Brent settled at $41.80/b.
A rebound in the futures market has coincided with drop in implied
volatility in the NYMEX crude options market.
Implied volatility can be seen as a proxy for the cost options,
meaning option premiums have fallen alongside an increase in oil
futures.
Implied volatility stood at 38.63% Thursday, down from 43.07% August
2, which was a high going back to April 15, according to
calculations by data supplier CQG using the three most prompt
contract months.
BNP Paribas analysts said in a note this week they expect oil prices
to weaken, but that alone might not be enough to push implied
volatility higher.
An inverse relationship exists between oil futures and implied
volatility, but crude prices are likely to decline in an "orderly"
fashion, and that should mitigate any rise in implied volatility,
they said.
--Geoffrey Craig,
geoffrey.craig@spglobal.com
--Edited by Derek Sands,
derek.sands@spglobal.com
© 2016 Platts, The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
To subscribe or visit go to:
http://www.platts.com
http://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/newyork/oil-futures-surge-higher-on-iea-monthly-report-21229221