Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug, 04 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 384 km/s at 31/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1166 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (02 Aug), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (03 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (04 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Aug 072
Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug 075/080/080
90 Day Mean        01 Aug 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  020/032-015/020-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor Storm           30/25/10
Major-severe storm    20/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/35
Major-severe storm    65/55/40