Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
07/1444Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Aug,
09 Aug, 10 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 07/0540Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 07/0144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10111 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (09 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (10 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Aug 093
Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug 100/105/100
90 Day Mean        07 Aug 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  015/020-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/30
Minor Storm           25/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/35
Major-severe storm    55/25/30

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For August 1-7

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed on 02-03 August due to CME shock enhancements coupled with effects from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.

R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 07 August due to flare activity from an active region just beyond the SW limb.

Outlook For August 8-14

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 08 August due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through the outlook period due to the flare potential from new Regions 2573 and 2574. These regions just rotated onto the east limb and appear to be the return of old active Regions 2565 and 2567 which produced R1-R2 radio blackouts on their previous transit.