Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/0023Z from Region 2578 (N08E61). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Aug,
17 Aug, 18 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 411 km/s at 14/2128Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
15/1426Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/0712Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 9574 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Aug 088
Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean        15 Aug 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  012/016-009/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/15
Major-severe storm    20/40/05