Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 435 km/s at 17/2233Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 17/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/2230Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Aug, 20 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Aug 082
Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug 085/080/075
90 Day Mean        18 Aug 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  009/010-011/014-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/15
Minor Storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/20