Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 25/0737Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/2037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/0655Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1295 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (26 Aug, 28
Aug) and quiet levels on day two (27 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Aug 079
Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        25 Aug 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  017/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  008/008-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/25