Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
29/0346Z from Region 2583 (N13W66). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Aug,
31 Aug, 01 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 384 km/s at 28/2105Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
29/1208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
29/1212Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1946 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Aug) and unsettled
to active levels on days two and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Aug 088
Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep 090/090/090
90 Day Mean        29 Aug 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  012/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  014/018-015/018-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15