La Niņa conditions are present, with a transition to ENSO-neutral
favored during January-March 2017.
La Niņa conditions persisted during November, with negative sea surface
temperature (SST) anomalies present across most of the central and
eastern equatorial Pacific
[Fig. 1]. The Niņo indices remained negative during November, except
for the Niņo1+2 index which reflected near-average SSTs in the extreme
eastern Pacific late in the month
[Fig. 2]. Also, the upper-ocean heat content remained below average
[Fig. 3] in association with cooler temperatures at depth
[Fig. 4], although this cooling lessened somewhat during the month.
Atmospheric convection remained suppressed over the central tropical
Pacific and enhanced over part of Indonesia
[Fig. 5]. The low-level easterly winds remained enhanced in the
west-central tropical Pacific, and upper-level westerly winds persisted
across the tropical Pacific. However, these signals were masked at times
by intra-seasonal activity. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system
during November reflected a continuation of weak La Niņa conditions.
The multi-model averages favor La Niņa (3-month average Niņo-3.4 index ≤
-0.5°C) to continue through December - February (DJF) 2016-17
[Fig. 6]. Given the current conditions and the model forecasts, the
forecaster consensus also favors the continuation of weak La Niņa
conditions through DJF 2016-17. In summary, La Niņa conditions are
present, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during January -
March 2017 (click
CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each
3-month period).
La Niņa is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across
the United States during the upcoming months (NOAA's
3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday December 15th).
The current seasonal outlook for DJF 2016-17 favors above-average
temperatures and below-median precipitation across much of the southern
tier of the U.S., and below-average temperatures and above-median
precipitation in portions of the northern tier of the U.S.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and
their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are
updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El
Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts
are also updated monthly in the
Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional
perspectives and analysis are also available in an
ENSO blog.
The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 January 2017 .
To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic
Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to:
ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740
|