Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 389 km/s at 01/0340Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
01/0500Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
01/0421Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16571 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 Dec, 03 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (04 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Dec 085
Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        01 Dec 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  005/005-006/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/25