Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 11/2154Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 11/2345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
12/0119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 17711 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Dec 071
Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec 070/075/075
90 Day Mean        12 Dec 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10