A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern
Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016,
with a possible transition to La Niņa conditions during the fall.
Indicative of a strong El Niņo, sea surface temperature (SSTs) anomalies
were in excess of 2°C across the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean
during January
(Fig. 1). The Niņo indices in the eastern Pacific declined, while
Niņo-3.4 and Niņo-4 were nearly unchanged
(Fig. 2). The subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern
Pacific increased due to a downwelling Kelvin wave
(Fig. 3), but toward the end of the month weakened again in
assocation with the eastward shift of below-average temperatures at
depth in the central Pacific
(Fig. 4). Also, low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level
easterly wind anomalies continued over much of the tropical Pacific. The
traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values
remained negative but weakened relative to last month. Convection
remained much enhanced over the central and east-central tropical
Pacific and suppressed over Indonesia
(Fig. 5). Collectively, these anomalies reflect the continuation of
a strong El Niņo.
Most models indicate that El Niņo will weaken, with a transition to
ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early summer 2016
(Fig. 6). Thereafter, the chance of La Niņa conditions increases
into the fall. While there is both model and physical support for La
Niņa following strong El Niņo, considerable uncertainty remains. A
transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere
spring or early summer 2016, with a possible transition to La Niņa
conditions during the fall (click
CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each
3-month period).
El Niņo has already produced significant global impacts and is expected
to affect temperature and precipitation patterns across the United
States during the upcoming months (the
3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday February 18th).
The seasonal outlooks for February - April indicate an increased
likelihood of above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the
United States, and below-median precipitation over the northern tier.
Above-average temperatures are favored in the North and West, and
below-average temperatures are favored in the southern Plains and along
the Gulf Coast.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and
their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are
updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El
Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts
are also updated monthly in the
Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional
perspectives and analysis are also available in an
ENSO blog.
The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 March 2016 To
receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic
Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to:
ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740
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