DROUGHT MONITOR: Dry conditions ease across northern Arizona
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Matt Hinshaw/The Daily Courier
Snow melts on the ground around Willow Lake
Tuesday afternoon in Prescott. Many parts of
northern Arizona are above normal for their
water year, which started Oct. 1, 2015,
according to the latest report issued by the
National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln,
Nebraska. |
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Two maps produced by the National Drought
Mitigation Center show how conditions have
improved from January 2015, left, to January
2016, right. The darker the shading, the more
severe the drought conditions.
Adjust the slider to view the change in the
maps.
For more drought maps, visit
United States Drought Monitor.
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PRESCOTT - The new year brought with it good news for Arizona's
drought situation.
The latest report issued Thursday, Jan. 28, by the National
Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Nebraska, shows nearly 43
percent of Arizona is no longer experiencing any form of
broad-scale drought.
"It's been a very unremarkable, gradual improvement over several
months," said Mark Svoboda, the report's author and
climate-based monitoring program area leader at the National
Drought Mitigation Center.
According to the report, about 41 percent of the state is still
marked at the center's first level. That first level, coded as
"D0 - Abnormally Dry," and just 16 percent is in the next level,
coded as "D1 - Moderate Drought."
What's more, no part of the state was in the severe, extreme or
exceptional drought classifications.
Compare that to the report issued the same week in 2015, when 3
percent of the state was in extreme drought, 80 percent of
Arizona was in severe to moderate drought, and all areas of the
state were experiencing some sort of climate dryness.
The most notable change was in Apache County, eastern Coconino
County and northern Apache County, all of which went from
abnormally dry to no drought classification in the last two
weeks.
Southeast Yavapai County, from Crown King to Black Canyon City
and east toward Payson, also saw a downgrade from severe drought
to abnormally dry over the same period.
Much of the rest of Yavapai County has continued in its
abnormally dry classification as long-term drought conditions
still impact the region.
Svoboda said the change is mostly attributed to a favorable
monsoon, though the winter has helped keep the momentum going in
the right direction.
"Arizona has been a very interesting case study this winter," he
said.
The 2015-16 winter is considered by climatologists and
meteorologists to be a strong El Nino year, and normally that
brings more precipitation than Arizona has received this year.
Svoboda said the increased rain and snow happened farther north,
in parts of Utah and Nevada, but hasn't happened yet this season
in Arizona.
"It's actually not a bad thing," he said, indicating too much
precipitation can lead to flooding, which can often lead to
property damage, injury and loss of life.
Despite not seeing quite the anticipated precipitation, Svododa
said many parts of northern Arizona are above normal for their
water year, starting Oct. 1, 2015.
"We've seen a shift toward wet," he said.
He said there are no longer any broad-scale, short-term drought
impacts across Arizona, and for that matter most of the West.
But several long-term water factors, like reservoir levels,
still impact the region.
"This doesn't mean the region is drought-free by any means, but
it's certainly a good start to the water year as we sit near the
midpoint of the snow season," he said.
Unfortunately, the situation hasn't improved as much for the
White Mountains region. That's the 19 percent of the state
that's still in moderate drought. Still, that area no longer is
classified as severe drought, as it was in December.
Across the West, Svoboda said, there is improvement. Short-term
impacts subsided in California, and long-term drought conditions
have eased across the Pacific Northwest.
Megan Schwitzer, a forecaster at the National Weather Service in
Bellemont, said much of Arizona's increased precipitation has
been from the Mogollon Rim to the Four Corners region, where
annual rainfall totals are above their three-year averages.
Winslow, for instance, had its second-wettest water year on
record in the 2014-15 water year.
"Last year was really wet despite last winter being below
average for snowfall," Schwitzer said.
This winter is looking much better. Snow monitoring stations
across northeast Arizona show snowfall between 25 and 100
percent above their 30-year averages.
Schwitzer said the short-term forecast shows the current trend
continuing, though she noted the recent days with highs above 50
have cost the region some of its annual snowfall.
"It's kind of tricky when we have such long breaks between
storms," she said.
That's expected to change this week.
"We are looking at a more active pattern starting next week,"
Schwitzer said.
Follow reporter Les Bowen on
Twitter
@NewsyLesBowen. Reach him at 928-445-3333, ext. 1110, or
928-830-9305.
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