Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/0114Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Feb,
03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
366 km/s at 01/1005Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 31/2108Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 31/2108Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Feb, 04
Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (03 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 100
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  009/008-012/015-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/25

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK **** Summary For January 25-31 No geomagnetic storming, solar radio blackouts, or solar radiation storms occurred during the reporting period. Outlook For February 1-7 No geomagnetic storms, solar radio blackouts, or solar radiation storms are expected for the forecast period.

Radio Events Observed 01 Feb 2016
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0101   0101    120          0101        0000  
0137   0137    120          0137        0000  
0151   0151    140          0151        0000  
0156   0156    270          0156        0000  
0205   0205    160          0205        0000  
0210   0210    150          0210        0000  
0232   0233    250          0233        0001  
0246   0246    120          0246        0000  
0316   0317    160          0317        0001  
0322   0322    130          0322        0000  
0328   0328    190          0328        0000  
0350   0350    100          0350        0000  
0358   0401    170          0359        0003  
0407   0407    220          0407        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0202   0456    270          0323