Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/0529Z from Region 2492 (N14W19). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Feb,
10 Feb, 11 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 466 km/s at 08/0757Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 08/0600Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/0349Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (09 Feb, 11 Feb)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Feb 115
Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 115/115/115
90 Day Mean        08 Feb 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb  016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  012/018-008/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/25
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/20/35

Radio Events Observed 08 Feb 2016
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0510   0510    120          0510        0000  
0823   0823    220          0823        0000  
2230   2230    100          2230        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For February 1-7

Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed on 03 February due to the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream.

Outlook For February 8-14

Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 08 February due to a prolonged period of negative Bz in the midst of a weak coronal hole high speed stream.