Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
15/1100Z from Region 2497 (N12W62). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb,
18 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
449 km/s at 15/1848Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/0509Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/2043Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 114 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Feb), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (17 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (18 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 107
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb 108/105/100
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  013/014-017/022-014/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/30
Minor Storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/55/40

Radio Events Observed 15 Feb 2016
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0711   0712    130          0711        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For February 8-14

Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed on 08 Feb due to effects from a co-rotating interaction region and subsequent coronal hole high speed stream.

Category R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 12, 13 and 14 Feb due to flare activity from active sunspot Region 2497.

Outlook For February 15-21

Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 15 Feb due to effects from the 11 Feb CME.

Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 17 Feb due to effects from a recurrent co-rotating interaction region and subsequent coronal hole high speed stream.