Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
18/0158Z from Region 2497 (N13, L=091). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Feb,
20 Feb, 21 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 723 km/s at 18/0538Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/2156Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 17/2144Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13229
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (19 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (20 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (21 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Feb 095
Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb 095/095/100
90 Day Mean        18 Feb 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  021/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  024/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  015/020-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/20
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/30/25