Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Feb,
24 Feb, 25 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 387 km/s at 22/2004Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
22/1607Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/1407Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 13209 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Feb 094
Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb 092/090/090
90 Day Mean        22 Feb 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  006/005-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/25/25