Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 470 km/s at 25/0320Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at
25/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/0429Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 932 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Feb 092
Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb 095/095/090
90 Day Mean        25 Feb 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15