A strong El Niņo is expected to
gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to
ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer.
A strong
El Niņo continued during December, with well above-average sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern
equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig.
1). All weekly Niņo indices decreased slightly from the
previous month (Fig.
2). The subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern
Pacific, while still well above average, weakened (Fig.
3) due to an upwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig.
4). Significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and
upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued over much of the
tropical Pacific. During the last week, another westerly wind
burst occurred in the east-central Pacific. The traditional and
equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values remained
strongly negative. Also, convection remained strong over the
central and east-central tropical Pacific, and suppressed over
Indonesia (Fig.
5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies
reflect the continuation of a strong El Niņo episode.
Most
models indicate that a strong El Niņo will weaken with a
transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early
summer (Fig.
6). The forecasters are in agreement with the model
consensus, though the exact timing of the transition is
difficult to predict. A strong El Niņo is expected to gradually
weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral
during late spring or early summer (click
CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome
for each 3-month period).
El Niņo
has already produced significant global impacts and is expected
to affect temperature and precipitation patterns across the
United States during the upcoming months (the
3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday January
21st). The seasonal outlooks for January - March indicate an
increased likelihood of above-median precipitation across the
southern tier of the United States, and below-median
precipitation over the northern tier of the United States.
Above-average temperatures are favored in the West and northern
half of the country with below-average temperatures favored in
the southern Plains and along the Gulf Coast.
This
discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather
Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric
conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center
web site (El
Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).
Forecasts are also updated monthly in the
Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin.
Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an
ENSO
blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for
11 February 2016 To receive an e-mail notification when the
monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an
e-mail message to:
ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
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