January 8, 2016 | By Barbara Vergetis Lundin

The automotive industry, like the power sector, is under intense pressure to lower emissions and increase efficiency. What will this mean for electric vehicles?

A micro-hybrid vehicle. Credit: Lexus

Over the next decade, auto manufacturers will need to meet aggressive fuel efficiency targets -- 54.5 miles per gallon (mpg) in the U.S. 95 grams of carbon dioxide emission per kilometer in Europe. While advanced technologies like all-electric vehicles, super-light carbon fiber composites, and hydrogen fuel cells will all be available, Lux Research predicts that micro-hybrids will provide the most economical route to meeting 2025 targets.

Carmakers will mainly use micro-hybrid or "start-stop" technology, along with lightweighting, to meet challenging fuel economy targets, adding $1,700 to average vehicle cost, says Lux Research.

In a micro-hybrid, the car can automatically stop its engine when it would otherwise be idling, using an improved or additional battery (or another type of energy storage) to quickly restart it when it's time to move. Some even capture braking energy and do propulsion assist.  Nearly half of the improvements required to meet the stiff targets will come from improvements in micro-hybrid technology, notably through improved batteries, while lighter structural materials will contribute 39% and improved fuels will add 13%, Lux contends.

"Improved energy storage options will help make micro-hybrids the most cost-effective way to respond, along with ongoing improvements to lightweight materials," said Anthony Schiavo, Lux Research associate.

Innovation in micro-hybrid technologies will contribute 48% of the improvements required to meet 2025 targets, according to Lux. Falling prices of lithium-ion batteries, lighter and better-performing 12V and 48V batteries, and better super capacitors are among the changes powering energy storage.

Further, Lux says that lighter structural materials are at the heart of fuel efficiency and will contribute 39% of the targeted improvements for 2025. Carmakers such as Ford and GM have ongoing partnerships with companies like Alcoa and Nanosteel Company that develop materials to reduce weight.

A third, albeit smaller, factor driving fuel efficiency is innovation in alternative fuels. About 13% of the improved 2025 targets will come from increased Research Octane Number (RON) content due to increasing biofuel blending mandates. Brazil has the highest target of 27.5% for ethanol, while the U.S. aims for 20% by 2022 for all renewable fuels, according to Lux; India and Thailand have set 20% targets, while Europe lags at 10%.

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