Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/0617Z from Region 2480 (N03E58). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
02/0011Z from Region 2473 (S21W89). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (03 Jan) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class
flares on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
632 km/s at 06/2251Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/2333Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/0056Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5126 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jan 103
Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        07 Jan 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/20

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2302
Begin Time: 2016 Jan 01 2035 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 4113 pfu

Radio Events Observed 02 Jan 2016
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
1703   1705    210          1705        0002  
2249   2251    1400         2251        0002  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.