Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jan,
16 Jan, 17 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
597 km/s at 14/0303Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/2106Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0148Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2836 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 103
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan 105/110/110
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2312
Begin Time: 2016 Jan 13 1420 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3055 pfu