Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at
18/2058Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 18/2100Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1458Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1560 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Jan, 20 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jan 100
Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        18 Jan 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  013/015-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/40/25