Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
28/1202Z from Region 2488 (N04W55). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan,
31 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
376 km/s at 28/0834Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 28/0307Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 28/0825Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 676 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (30 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (31 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jan 110
Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan 110/108/105
90 Day Mean        28 Jan 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  010/012-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/20/15