Roadmap to a sustainable electric future: All signs point to 100 percent renewables
The Paris Agreement on Climate Change was made possible through a dramatic technological revolution taking place over the last 25 years, by providing the means to reconcile two of the greatest challenges of the 21st century -- eliminating carbon emissions from the global economy and fulfilling the aspiration of billions of people for economic development.
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That is according to a new analysis, "The Economic and Institutional Foundations of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change: The Political Economy of Roadmaps to a Sustainable Electricity Future,"from the Institute for Energy and the Environment at Vermont Law School.
"The current terrain of energy/economic policy also imposes constraints that the agreement had to deal with," said Mark Cooper, senior research fellow for economic analysis at the Institute for Energy and the Environment and author of the report. "It had to recognize the importance of holding down economic costs, the need for aggressive policies to induce technological change and the vast difference between nations in energy resources and levels of development, while also respecting the policymaking autonomy of nations."
The economic fundamentals of the agreement are examined by analyzing three recent deep decarbonization "road maps" -- the 100 percent renewable scenario of Jacobson et al., Greenpeace's "energy (r)evolution," and the Deep Decarbonization Pathway project -- and evaluates the impact on costs of low-carbon and low-pollution constraints on the selection of resources to meet the need for electricity.
The report found that the selection of resources on the basis of their environmental characteristics is almost identical to a selection based on their economic cost.
Further, a rigorous least-cost approach to decarbonization leads to an electricity sector based on 100 percent renewables at a cost for energy services that is likely to be lower than a business-as-usual approach based on fossil fuels and nuclear power. This rigorous, least-cost approach to decarbonization accomplishes the goal of reducing other pollution, rendering it "irrelevant" from a policy perspective. Neither fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage nor nuclear power enter the least-cost, low-carbon portfolio because their costs are much higher than renewables and do not appear to be decreasing.
The analysis came to the conclusion that because the main energy resources of the 100 percent renewable approach are widely available and less costly today, there is no reason to hesitate on taking aggressive measures to follow the 100 percent renewable road map.
"Contrary to loud complaints that dealing with climate change will cause a disastrous increase in electricity costs," Cooper said, "a rigorous, least-cost approach prevents such an outcome and may even result in a reduction in the total cost of energy service, while delivering massive public health and environmental benefits."
The analysis describes the institutional foundation of the Paris Agreement as a progressive, mixed-market model consistent with academic literature, siting these progressive features of the agreement: vigorous policies to achieve the goals of access to and local control of electricity for developing nations; differential contributions from parties to reflect their capabilities; institution-building in developing nations, with transfers of resources and technologies to developing nations; and explicit efforts to strengthen public, mixed public and private activities.
"As with any collaborative, multi-stakeholder model for governing a large common pool resource, the outcome will be determined by the ability to build trust and social norms," Cooper said. "The theory in the Paris Agreement is correct; it remains to be seen if the practice develops."
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