Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
07/0756Z from Region 2561 (S16W45). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 571 km/s at 07/1751Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 07/0126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 07/1852Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jul 083
Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul 084/085/086
90 Day Mean        07 Jul 089

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul  019/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  013/015-008/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/15
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/25/25