Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 11/0233Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/1150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
11/1025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4449 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13
Jul, 14 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 095
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  012/012-012/015-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/30/30