Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 607 km/s at 14/1955Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 14/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
14/0732Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4181 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jul).  Quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (16 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (17 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jul 095
Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul 094/091/091
90 Day Mean        14 Jul 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  007/015-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    25/20/10

Radio Events Observed 14 Jul 2016
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0609   0609    100          0609        0000  
0634   0634    300          0634        0000  
0646   0646    120          0646        0000  
2051   2051    150          2051        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #16-28
2016 July 10 at 9:34 p.m. MDT (2016 July 11 0334 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For July 4-10

Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed on 07-08 Jul due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Outlook For July 11-17

Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 11 Jul due to effects from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream.