Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/0046Z from Region 2567 (N05W52). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one and two (22 Jul, 23 Jul) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(24 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 518 km/s at 21/1439Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
21/0418Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at
21/1915Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jul,
23 Jul, 24 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (22 Jul, 23 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M    35/30/15
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     10/10/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jul 100
Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul 100/100/095
90 Day Mean        21 Jul 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  019/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  009/010-008/008-007/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/10

Radio Events Observed 21 Jul 2016
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0045   0045    100          0045        0000  
0443   0444    540          0443        0001  
0450   0450    100          0450        0000  
0606   0606    100          0606        0000  
0626   0631    340          0629        0005  
1041   1042    120          1042        0001  
1112   1117    130          1112        0005  
1213   1213    140          1213        0000  
1250   1252    340          1252        0002  
1539   1539    100          1539        0000  
1724   1724    200          1724        0000  
1745   1745    250          1745        0000  
1949   1949    440          1949        0000  
2202   2202    170          2202        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
1305   1424    190          1336