Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/0909Z from Region 2567 (N05W0*). There are currently 0 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (26 Jul) and expected to be very low with a slight
chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 25/0204Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 24/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/0826Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 622 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27
Jul, 28 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M    10/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jul 074
Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        25 Jul 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  010/015-010/012-011/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/45/40