ENSO-neutral conditions are present and La Niņa is favored to
develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a
75% chance of La Niņa during the fall and winter 2016-17.
El Niņo
dissipated and ENSO-neutral conditions returned during over the
past month, as indicated by the expansion of near-to-below
average surface temperatures (SST) across the eastern equatorial
Pacific Ocean
(Fig. 1). Other than the westernmost Niņo-4 region, the Niņo
indices were near zero by the end of May
(Fig. 2). Below-average subsurface temperatures continued
(Fig. 3) and extended to the surface across the eastern
equatorial Pacific
(Fig. 4). For the first time in 2016, atmospheric anomalies
over the tropical Pacific Ocean were also consistent with
ENSO-neutral conditions. The traditional and equatorial Southern
Oscillation indices were near zero, while the upper and
lower-level winds were both near average across most of the
tropical Pacific. Convection was also near-average over the
central tropical Pacific and over most of Indonesia
(Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic
anomalies reflect a transition from El Niņo to ENSO-neutral
conditions.
Many
models favor La Niņa (3-month average Niņo-3.4 index less than
or equal to -0.5°C) by the Northern Hemisphere fall
(Fig. 6). However, most dynamical models indicate La Niņa
onset as soon as the Northern Hemisphere summer, which is
slightly favored by the forecaster consensus. In contrast, many
statistical models favor a later onset time, with about half
indicating the persistence of ENSO-neutral conditions through
the winter. At this time, the forecasters are leaning toward a
weak or borderline moderate La Niņa if an event were to form.
Overall, ENSO-neutral conditions are present and La Niņa is
favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016,
with about a 75% chance of La Niņa during the fall and winter
2016-17 (click
CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome
for each 3-month period).
This
discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather
Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric
conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center
web site (El
Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).
Forecasts are also updated monthly in the
Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin.
Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an
ENSO
blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for
14 July 2016. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly
ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail
message to:
ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
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