Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 453 km/s at 02/0346Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1311 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Jun) and unsettled to
major storm levels on days two and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jun 085
Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        02 Jun 092

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  008/010-024/035-021/032

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/30
Minor Storm           05/35/30
Major-severe storm    01/20/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/70/70

Radio Events Observed 02 Jun 2016
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0450   0450    140          0450        0000  
1150   1150    150          1150        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2366
Begin Time: 2016 May 30 1520 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1374 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.