Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/1234Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jun,
11 Jun, 12 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 453 km/s at 09/0608Z. Total IMF reached 4 nT at
09/0332Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
09/1537Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1570 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Jun), quiet to active
levels on day two (11 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day three
(12 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jun 085
Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun 085/090/095
90 Day Mean        09 Jun 091

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  006/008-011/014-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/30
Minor Storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/35/40