Report of Solar Geophysical Activity
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2016 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed averaged near 500 km/s. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/0553Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/1946Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 942 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Jun, 22 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Jun). III. Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Jun 084 Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 085/085/080 90 Day Mean 20 Jun 091 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 005/005-005/005-011/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 15/10/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/20 **** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK **** www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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