Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Jun, 29 Jun, 30 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 27/0321Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 26/2148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
26/2216Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1257 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (28 Jun, 29 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on day three (30 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jun 075
Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun 075/078/080
90 Day Mean        27 Jun 090

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  006/005-006/005-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/30
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/15/35
Major-severe storm    05/05/40