A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern
Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016
with close to a 50 percent chance for La Niņa conditions to develop
by the fall.
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased across most of the
central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during February
(Fig. 1). The latest Niņo-3.4 and Niņo-3 weekly values were near
2°C, while the Niņo-4 and Niņo-1+2 indices were 1°C and 1.4°C
respectively
(Fig. 2). The subsurface temperature anomalies in the central and
eastern Pacific decreased substantially
(Fig. 3) in association with the eastward shift of below-average
temperatures at depth
(Fig. 4). Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly
wind anomalies continued, but were weaker relative to January. The
traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained
strongly negative. In addition, convection was much enhanced over the
central and east-central tropical Pacific and suppressed over parts of
Indonesia and northern Australia
(Fig. 5). Collectively, these anomalies reflect the continuation of
a strong El Niņo.
All models indicate that El Niņo will weaken, with a transition to
ENSO-neutral likely during the late spring or early summer 2016
(Fig. 6). Thereafter, the chance of La Niņa conditions increases
into the fall. While there is both model and physical support for La
Niņa following a strong El Niņo, considerable uncertainty remains. A
transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere
spring or early summer 2016, with close to a 50 percent chance for La
Niņa conditions to develop by the fall (click
CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each
3-month period).
El Niņo has already produced significant global impacts and is expected
to affect temperature and precipitation patterns across the United
States during the upcoming months (the
3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday March 17th).
The seasonal outlooks for March - May indicate an increased likelihood
of above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United
States, and below-median precipitation over the Midwest and part of
Pacific Northwest. Above-average temperatures are favored across the
North and West, with below-average temperatures favored in the
south-central region.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and
their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are
updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El
Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts
are also updated monthly in the
Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional
perspectives and analysis are also available in an
ENSO blog.
The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 April 2016. To
receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic
Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to:
ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740
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