Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 03/0252Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 02/2146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/0658Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 167 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (04 Mar, 05 Mar) and
unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (06 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Mar 099
Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        03 Mar 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  010/012-013/015-017/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/40
Minor Storm           05/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/40/50