Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Mar,
12 Mar, 13 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 09/2200Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 10/1845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/1824Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3078 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Mar 095
Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        10 Mar 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  006/005-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/25/20