Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Mar,
26 Mar, 27 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 24/2031Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 24/1406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
24/1639Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 129 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Mar, 26 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (27 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Mar 087
Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar 088/090/092
90 Day Mean        24 Mar 101

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  006/005-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25

Radio Events Observed 24 Mar 2016
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
1026   1026    110          1026        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
1029   1032    120          1031